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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Aussie side host a greater number of birthdays than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald had his 31st a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Test in Perth. Beau Webster reaches 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the final day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling attack. It is rare to have almost every player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a disadvantage: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a weakness, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the reserve players over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their thirties. Emerging pacemen have briefly joined teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before vanishing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the first Test, was the team management view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the balance undergoes a much more significant shift with two key bowlers missing rather than one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so successful in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the opening bowler.

Newcomer Confronts Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be anxious.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what new injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after Brisbane, given how complicated stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of getting injured early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the primary four bowlers reunited and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much earlier than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a great day-night Brisbane option, but after that with choices unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has not yet played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that change approaching, coming around the corner, and England ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.